Round 12 bet(s) + Round 11 wrapup
Squiggle and the Line
Well, given the 11 other models at Squiggle I decided to see how THEY went picking Line bets. I tabulated success over the 44 games in rounds 7 to 11, and also just for the 12 selected games by Defender. While defender made $1.60 (all $10 bets) if all games were bet on, and 5 models went backwards HPN is the standout, making $78 over the 5 rounds. Of course over the 12 Defender selected games: 1) Defender made $72 2) HPN actually loses $43 WTF When Defender is right HPN is wrong and vice versa. I decided to look at HPN on all games EXCEPT the games Defender self selected - WOW HPN makes $121 over 23 $10 line bets. While I can only fine tune and fully understand defender, I may be able to make use of HPN, plus if the trend continues over time the combination of the models may be greater than either.
The model looks at team strength over last 11 games, team defence over last 11 games, home state advantage, blowouts, all of these parameters optimised over previous 4 seasons data. Then a weighted average of % tips correct by home team when selected for a tip is multiplied by the % tips correct for away team when tipped against. This product is the "reliability" it is the blue column after home line. When reliability is less than 35% no bet is placed.
ReplyDeleteSaint Kilda Melbourne and Brisbane would all have tips but are deselected on the grounds of reliability.
Fyfe out, model does not take this into account. You might like to have a round with no bet.
ReplyDeletehow come Melbourne line wasn't taken against the Bulldogs?
ReplyDelete