AFL Mullumby Defender

Round 17 wrap + Round 18 predictions (Fremantle team 6 to score within 3 points of Defender - Power - not so much)

Well, I had originally optimised parameters to minimise the MAE in the margin of games previously played. I was introduced to Total Game Score betting, and duplicated my work, optimising the parameters on TGS. Surprisingly similar and also with differences. I decided to optimise on the MAE in individual team scores and predict results for BOTH margin and TGS in the one spreadsheet system. The bottom orange background is 2018 summary. Crazy close for GWS, Richmond, Melbourne, Bulldogs and Suns.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4es6gklhhw3cu2c/summary%202018%20line%20bets%20Mullumby%20Defender%20to%20round%2017.xlsx?dl=0

Games Wins Row Labels Count of Season Sum of WIN Over 240 102 43% 2016 122 55 45% 2017 72 31 43% 2018 46 16 35% Under 282 158 56% 2016 76 43 57% 2017 126 71 56% 2018 80 44 55% Grand Total 522 260 50% These numbers are "unimproved" (for example not taking bets when the predicted total is within 5 points of the line), but already it appears that a betting strategy based on "Under" predictions would work over time. Stay tuned as I try to further improve the criteria. 1st move for this system might be to optimize on game total error instead of the current "margin MAE"