Game total bets over 2016 to 2018

Games Wins
Row Labels Count of Season Sum of WIN
Over 240 102 43%
2016 122 55 45%
2017 72 31 43%
2018 46 16 35%
Under 282 158 56%
2016 76 43 57%
2017 126 71 56%
2018 80 44 55%
Grand Total 522 260 50%

These numbers are "unimproved" (for example not taking bets when the predicted total is within 5 points of the line), but already it appears that a betting strategy based on "Under" predictions would work over time.

Stay tuned as I try to further improve the criteria.

1st move for this system might be to optimize on game total error instead of the current "margin MAE"


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