Round 13 - 2 Mullumby Defender identified Line Bets



Note Gold Coast selection is removed because of poor reliability at winning selected games

Gold Coast win 30% of games selected by Defender to win

St Kilda lose 89% of the games Defender selects them to lose

Product =  27% which is less than the optimised parameter of 35% - so no bet


Comments

  1. Unknown14 June 2018 at 15:41

    Hi Sir, I'm new here and im trying to understand your model. Are you going with Geelong and Hawks at the Line? Does the model take into account that Geelong is playing their home game at the G?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mullumby14 June 2018 at 23:28

    Yes to the line bets. The model has selected 13 linebets so far this season (it starts working in round 7) and has scored 11 correct so far. Yes, both Geelong and Richmond get their respective HGAs. The model has Geelong losing by 5 pts and Hawthorn winning by 15pts

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Not for the faint of Math

Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
Read more