Squiggle and the Line
Well, given the 11 other models at Squiggle I decided to see how THEY went picking Line bets.
I tabulated success over the 44 games in rounds 7 to 11, and also just for the 12 selected games by Defender.
While defender made $1.60 (all $10 bets) if all games were bet on, and 5 models went backwards HPN is the standout, making $78 over the 5 rounds.
Of course over the 12 Defender selected games:
1) Defender made $72
2) HPN actually loses $43
When Defender is right HPN is wrong and vice versa.
I decided to look at HPN on all games EXCEPT the games Defender self selected - WOW
HPN makes $121 over 23 $10 line bets.
While I can only fine tune and fully understand defender, I may be able to make use of HPN, plus if the trend continues over time the combination of the models may be greater than either.