Note Gold Coast selection is removed because of poor reliability at winning selected games Gold Coast win 30% of games selected by Defender to win St Kilda lose 89% of the games Defender selects them to lose Product = 27% which is less than the optimised parameter of 35% - so no bet
The model looks at team strength over last 11 games, team defence over last 11 games, home state advantage, blowouts, all of these parameters optimised over previous 4 seasons data. Then a weighted average of % tips correct by home team when selected for a tip is multiplied by the % tips correct for away team when tipped against. This product is the "reliability" it is the blue column after home line. When reliability is less than 35% no bet is placed.
ReplyDeleteSaint Kilda Melbourne and Brisbane would all have tips but are deselected on the grounds of reliability.
Fyfe out, model does not take this into account. You might like to have a round with no bet.
ReplyDeletehow come Melbourne line wasn't taken against the Bulldogs?
ReplyDelete