Weighted Averages
As you know Mullumby Defender incorporates a strength and a defence parameter for each team.
I have added a mechanism whereby more recent results are more "valuable" in the calculations that generate these parameters - weighted averaging.
Long story short. Defender is now measurably "better" in terms of MAE, and modelled betting.
Also closer to bookies line, rightmost column.
I have added a mechanism whereby more recent results are more "valuable" in the calculations that generate these parameters - weighted averaging.
Long story short. Defender is now measurably "better" in terms of MAE, and modelled betting.
Also closer to bookies line, rightmost column.
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