round 14 - bets
Worth noting that both Collingwood and Hawthorn "would" be bets except that Mullumby Defender automatically rejects all bets with lines less than -44 (but gee I like them). No bet will be placed on them.
Squiggle and the Line
Well, given the 11 other models at Squiggle I decided to see how THEY went picking Line bets. I tabulated success over the 44 games in rounds 7 to 11, and also just for the 12 selected games by Defender. While defender made $1.60 (all $10 bets) if all games were bet on, and 5 models went backwards HPN is the standout, making $78 over the 5 rounds. Of course over the 12 Defender selected games: 1) Defender made $72 2) HPN actually loses $43 WTF When Defender is right HPN is wrong and vice versa. I decided to look at HPN on all games EXCEPT the games Defender self selected - WOW HPN makes $121 over 23 $10 line bets. While I can only fine tune and fully understand defender, I may be able to make use of HPN, plus if the trend continues over time the combination of the models may be greater than either.
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