Round 12 - with the squiggle collected models



Round 12, Mullumby Defender AND other models collated at squiggle.com - Defender selected 4 bets- three cancelled on the reliability of teams left with Freo Line bet. However no Fyfe, so perhaps no bet.
Interesting that ALL the models bar 1 have Fremantle winning that line bet 


Yellow is selected bet by Defender

Orange - bets initially selected by the algorithm, but discarded based on "reliability" of the particular teams in question.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Not for the faint of Math

Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
Read more