Round 12 - NAILED IT! - 1 bet selected - 1 WIN - 11 of 13 for 2018

Go Freo

Fremantle 71 to Adelaide 68

Well, that's good news.

We will see how Mullumby Defender is tracking in the lowest MAE model stakes after round 12, but the more important(?) statistic is that for 2018 Mullumby Defender is now at 11 line wins from 13 games.

Remember that line bets are what bookies say are 50:50 so getting 85% right is actually just stupid good (except I hope it is just SMART GOOD :) )


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Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
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