Rounds 7-11 2018 + Reflecting on the West Coast


The West Coast at 3/4 time were 48 points up, on target for a 64 point win. Mullumby Defender had them on for a 74 point win which is pretty close. The winning team WCE pulled their boots off the Saints throats and coasted to win by only 13 points.

This has inspired a new constraint "minimum line"

The round so far:
Out of 7 GAMES 3 TIPPED WITHIN 4 POINTS


So 2018 rounds under the "new" system









Still hanging on Adelaide, though looking to be a loss. So total after 5 rounds of betting $245

I will actually reset to around $147 because of the West coast and not having the >-44 points in the system

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Not for the faint of Math

Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
Read more