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AFL Mullumby Defender

Mystical machinations of Mullumby. AFL modelling with a view to line bet selection.

Round 17

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July 09, 2018

WELL, round 16 had ean Average Error in the margin of only a 16.4 (very good) we will see for rnd 17

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Squiggle and the Line

June 07, 2018

Well, given the 11 other models at Squiggle I decided to see how THEY went picking Line bets. I tabulated success over the 44 games in rounds 7 to 11, and also just for the 12 selected games by Defender. While defender made $1.60 (all $10 bets) if all games were bet on, and 5 models went backwards HPN is the standout, making $78 over the 5 rounds. Of course over the 12 Defender selected games: 1) Defender made $72 2) HPN actually loses $43 WTF When Defender is right HPN is wrong and vice versa. I decided to look at HPN on all games EXCEPT the games Defender self selected - WOW HPN makes $121 over 23 $10 line bets. While I can only fine tune and fully understand defender, I may be able to make use of HPN, plus if the trend continues over time the combination of the models may be greater than either.

Round 13 - 2 Mullumby Defender identified Line Bets

June 11, 2018

Note Gold Coast selection is removed because of poor reliability at winning selected games Gold Coast win 30% of games selected by Defender to win St Kilda lose 89% of the games Defender selects them to lose Product = 27% which is less than the optimised parameter of 35% - so no bet

Not for the faint of Math

June 13, 2018

Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia...