Optimalisation after rounds 1-6 added (using previous season data)


Below can be seen column after column of the optimisation process used.

Initially, ALL parameters zeroed yields a  MAE of 32.4

Then find optimal Blowout and factor (35 and 21%) giving a MAE of 30.25

Zero the Blowout, find optimal "flat" HGA giving a MAE of 31.89

Optimal blowout in, find best "flat HGA (=8) giving MAE of 29.44

Find best individual HGA's with blowout 35, 16%

.......

BEST blowout/penalty   Individual HGA and blowout prediction new MAE 27.92






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