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Not for the faint of Math
Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
The model looks at team strength over last 11 games, team defence over last 11 games, home state advantage, blowouts, all of these parameters optimised over previous 4 seasons data. Then a weighted average of % tips correct by home team when selected for a tip is multiplied by the % tips correct for away team when tipped against. This product is the "reliability" it is the blue column after home line. When reliability is less than 35% no bet is placed.
ReplyDeleteSaint Kilda Melbourne and Brisbane would all have tips but are deselected on the grounds of reliability.
Fyfe out, model does not take this into account. You might like to have a round with no bet.
ReplyDeletehow come Melbourne line wasn't taken against the Bulldogs?
ReplyDelete