Letter to HPN
Hi
I have started applying my Defender Model this year (optimised parameters over last 4 seasons).
Essentially each team is allocated a strength in points and a Defence %. The predicted scoreline is Team A strength modded by TeamB Defence and vice versa. Add in blowout adjustments for both strength calculations and predicted scorelines and individual home state bonuses and you have my model.
Based on previous season analysis Defender also self-selects the games it is more likely to win line bets, typically 1-2 per round. This is from analysis of an assumed normal distribution around the Defender margin with a standard deviation of the MAE, PLUS a reliability score based on how "winning" that team has been in previous selected games (and "losing" for the selected loser).
The reason I am emailing you however is that for the games defender self-selected HPN scored only 4 wins from 12 games. However for the games NOT selected by Defender HPN scored 23 wins from 32.
Defender scored 10 of 12 for its selected games, and 13 of 32 for the non selected (better off straight up reversing tip).
I(s there something in this? Defender is about consistent Team form over previous 11 weeks, HPN is about players. Defender is able to pick out teams with consistent (winning or losing) for, and inconsistent team form seems to add credence to individual player model of HPN.
Defender::::Champion Teams HPN::::Teams of Champions ?????
Your thoughts?
I have started applying my Defender Model this year (optimised parameters over last 4 seasons).
Essentially each team is allocated a strength in points and a Defence %. The predicted scoreline is Team A strength modded by TeamB Defence and vice versa. Add in blowout adjustments for both strength calculations and predicted scorelines and individual home state bonuses and you have my model.
Based on previous season analysis Defender also self-selects the games it is more likely to win line bets, typically 1-2 per round. This is from analysis of an assumed normal distribution around the Defender margin with a standard deviation of the MAE, PLUS a reliability score based on how "winning" that team has been in previous selected games (and "losing" for the selected loser).
The reason I am emailing you however is that for the games defender self-selected HPN scored only 4 wins from 12 games. However for the games NOT selected by Defender HPN scored 23 wins from 32.
Defender scored 10 of 12 for its selected games, and 13 of 32 for the non selected (better off straight up reversing tip).
I(s there something in this? Defender is about consistent Team form over previous 11 weeks, HPN is about players. Defender is able to pick out teams with consistent (winning or losing) for, and inconsistent team form seems to add credence to individual player model of HPN.
Defender::::Champion Teams HPN::::Teams of Champions ?????
Your thoughts?
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