Betting Strategy continued
After the numerical analysis, I have been directed to "Kelly Criterion" which corroborates the work I did AND provides the theoretical basis to examine past Mullumby Defender Data to work out the best betting strategy for the future.
http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/
Reliability 0% means not using the 2018 developed reliability (at respectively winning and losing selected bets), so MORE bets, but lower % won.
The column is filled with the ACTUAL percentage of the selected bets won that season.
next column is number of games selected in the season
Proportion is the "Kelly recommended" proportion to bet.
Return over bets is calculated return for proportion, probability and number of games.
Reliability 35% is the statistics with bets of reliability less than 35% discarded
Reliability (% wins when selected for the winner * % losses when selected as loser for the loser)
40% is the Kelly recommendation for the reliability 35 % method, but in a "bad" year 2017 it goes backwards. (of course over time it IS better)
I am actually going to use the reliability 35% bet selection method, but with a proportion of 20% for each bet (more conservative -stays level even in 2017)
So.... with 10 more rounds, roughly 15 more bets, if we travel at 73% (current 87% is unrealistic) then hopefully a return for 208 from right now of 2.6 x (have $150 so around $400)
We will, of course, see...
http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/
Reliability 0% means not using the 2018 developed reliability (at respectively winning and losing selected bets), so MORE bets, but lower % won.
The column is filled with the ACTUAL percentage of the selected bets won that season.
next column is number of games selected in the season
Proportion is the "Kelly recommended" proportion to bet.
Return over bets is calculated return for proportion, probability and number of games.
Reliability 35% is the statistics with bets of reliability less than 35% discarded
Reliability (% wins when selected for the winner * % losses when selected as loser for the loser)
40% is the Kelly recommendation for the reliability 35 % method, but in a "bad" year 2017 it goes backwards. (of course over time it IS better)
I am actually going to use the reliability 35% bet selection method, but with a proportion of 20% for each bet (more conservative -stays level even in 2017)
So.... with 10 more rounds, roughly 15 more bets, if we travel at 73% (current 87% is unrealistic) then hopefully a return for 208 from right now of 2.6 x (have $150 so around $400)
We will, of course, see...
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