Total Game Score Betting

A new area to expand into?

Several online pundits have asked how well Mullumby Defender goes with total game score bets.

In truth, I don't know.

I DO know my predicted scores (and therefore game total) for every game for the previous 5 years.

Given time I can pull the actual game totals AND the betting GTL (game total line?) from footywire.

Is it possible Mullumby Defender will be even better at game total lines than normal line betting?

I suppose it is worth a hard look.

tonight what was the bet tonight?
Mullumby Defender predicted 66 to 61 Swans win (which with Swans -15 line would give a winning line bet on the Cats) for a total game score of 127. Actual score 59 to 71 game score of 130. Can I assume that is close enough (-3) that a successful bet could have been laid?

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Not for the faint of Math

Good Day All some musings on a major change to Mullumby Defender, not to the calculation of the predicted scoreline and margin, but rather to the confidence in it from game to game. Currently, the model assumes the true "home margin" result will lie in a normal distribution around the predicted value with a standard deviation equal to the MAE of the season. Reasonable as a overall tactic, but what about doing better for individual games? For the Mullumby Defender selected games, the success rate for line bets (50% bookie rated) prior to reliability is around 60-65%. After adding the "reliability" criterion which relates the reliability of each team in the past to be successful when selected in a game, the success rate.... well we are on 11 wins from 13 bets in 2018, and the historical modelling puts it around 75-85%. This means apples are not apples, some predictions are better than others. Further evidence is found in the Mean Absolute Error for the relia
Read more