Squiggle Models vs Mullumby Defender 2017, 2018


Bear in mind ALL Mullumby Defender predictions are from "PAST" data, but the parameters (for HGA etc. are optimised over 2016, 2017 and 2018 - cheating?).

Mullumby Defender MAE for "Defender" (no blowout prediction), and Def Bo (blowout predictions)


So how good are the MAE predictions?

Well...... 2017 - a MAE of 28.14 is a clear winner by more than a full point.

2018...... still the clear winner, but by only 0.12 (but ALL models more accurate this year)

It remains to be seen if the obviously WELL optimised parameters in Mullumby Defender are optimal for the future.

Squiggle 2018 after round 15




Squiggle 2017 leaderboard




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