Game total bets over 2016 to 2018
Games | Wins | |||
Row Labels | Count of Season | Sum of WIN | ||
Over | 240 | 102 | 43% | |
2016 | 122 | 55 | 45% | |
2017 | 72 | 31 | 43% | |
2018 | 46 | 16 | 35% | |
Under | 282 | 158 | 56% | |
2016 | 76 | 43 | 57% | |
2017 | 126 | 71 | 56% | |
2018 | 80 | 44 | 55% | |
Grand Total | 522 | 260 | 50% | |
These numbers are "unimproved" (for example not taking bets when the predicted total is within 5 points of the line), but already it appears that a betting strategy based on "Under" predictions would work over time.
Stay tuned as I try to further improve the criteria.
1st move for this system might be to optimize on game total error instead of the current "margin MAE"
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